Saturday, February 23, 2013

NFL Playoff Predictions 2013: Three Reasons Why Baltimore Will Win AFC Championship

(Originally posted at coachsspeak.weebly.com on 1/19/13).

The Baltimore Ravens look to earn their first trip to the Super Bowl since hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in 2000, and avenge a 23-20 AFC Championship loss to the New England Patriots.  This will mark the first time first time a rematch will occur in the same venue since the Pittsburgh Steelers turned away the Houston Oilers in 1978 and 1979.


  1.      Familiarity Breeds Contempt:

Most teams wilt under the pressure of playing the Patriots in Foxborough, MA.  But the Ravens are not intimidated by the Patriots, going 2-2 in their last four match-ups according to Garrett Downing of BaltimoreRavens.com

The Raven, along with the New York Giants, have established the  blueprint on slowing quarterback Tom Brady and his fast-paced, high-octane offense down--throwing four touchdowns and seven interceptions in their last four games against them.

Dean Pees, Ravens Defensive  Coordinator and held the same position for six years, knows Brady as well as anyone on the Ravens’ coaching staff—matching wits with Brady in practice.  Pees said during their weekly coaches press conference Thursday, “We have to do the best job we can, fundamentally, to disrupt him and do some things to him. I have a lot of respect for him. He is a Hall of Fame quarterback.”
Remember Ravens’ President Ozzie Newsome started his front office career with the Cleveland Browns when Bill Belichick was the Head Coach from 1991 until they moved to Baltimore in 1995. 

When Newsome was named President after the move, he admitted on Cleveland ’95: A Football Life  that he patterned the Ravens’ infrastructure in the mold of Belichick’s model. 



2.      The Ray Lewis-Factor:

“Ray’s last dance” has been the Ravens’ battle-cry in this playoff run since Lewis retirement announcement leading up to their Wild-Card Game matchup with the Indianapolis Colts. 

Coming back from a torn triceps and was scheduled to be placed on injured reserve—thus ending his season.  Lewis told the Head Coach John Harbaugh not to place him on IR and rehabbed the injury with a shot at playing in the playoffs for his return.


Though there has been widely-held speculation of Lewis’ timing of his announcement was a motivational tool to spark the Ravens, who limped into the playoffs losers of three of four games, his play on the field and the effect he has on his teammates is unquestioned.  Lewis leads the Ravens with 30 tackles this postseason.

The Ravens’ improved play on defense is not as mystical as it appears.  They are as healthy as they have been all season.  Defensive End Terrell Suggs—2011 NFL Defensive Player of the Year-- has played through a torn biceps tendon and an Achilles tendon that’s not 100 percent healed, DT Haloti NGata has battled through back and knee issues for most of the season, S Bernard Pollard (chest) and LB Dannell Ellerbe (back/knee) are near 100 percent.

This edition of the Ravens’ defense will not be compared to the 2000 Ravens, ranked statistically with the 1985 Chicago Bears as one of the most dominant defenses in NFL history for one season, but for this playoff run, they are producing timely turnovers and keeping teams from scoring touchdowns.  Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, who came into the Wild Card match up winning nine of their last 12 games, managed only three field goals against the Ravens despite rushing for 152 yards and Luck passing for 288 yards and one INT.

The Ravens had never beaten a Peyton Manning-led team in the playoffs, but sacked him twice, held him to three touchdown drives and two INTs—including one cornerback Corey Graham took to the house.

As Chris Collinsworth often says on Showtime’s Inside the NFL, it’s not always the best team that wins in the playoffs, but the team that is the healthiest.

  3.      Elite Joe Flacco?

Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco has set himself up to make elite quarterback money this off-season.  Flacco is the only quarterback in NFL history to win at least one playoff game in his first five seasons. 

The detractors say that’s because Flacco is a quarterback on a team with a top-five defense that carried the team.  The Ravens defense ranked in the top-five in total defense, but this season the Ravens defense dropped to 21st in total defense. 

Flacco has passed for 12 touchdowns and two interceptions in his last six playoff games according to Skip Bayless on ESPN’s 1st Take yesterday.  In addition he has out-passed Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning in his last three playoff starts, throwing for 631 yards with five touchdowns and zero picks.  Flacco has passed for 931 yards with seven touchdowns against two picks in his last three starts versus the Patriots.

NFL  Network’s Kurt Warner seems to the think so.  “I’m not sure if he’s top-5 yet, I’d like to see some more consistency from him.  But when you compare him to other quarterbacks in our league, when you compare him to guys coming out in the draft, he’s a huge step up.  From that I think he deserves to be paid like a franchise quarterback.”

As it stands going into the off-season, I see one of three things happening with the Flacco contract situation with no. 3 being the least likely scenario: 1) the Ravens will sign him to a four-to-five year deal between $60-75 million. 2)  The Ravens will place the Franchise tag on him and his salary will be competitive with the top 5 paid quarterbacks—about $15 million for the year. 3) The Ravens will not resign Flacco and he’ll test the free agent market.  

GO SOCIAL
On Twitter: #BALvsNE, #NFLPlayoffs

Follow Boris McLaughlin on Twitter @CoachBMc

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